The government have launched a consultation on a new version of the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). One of the key proposed changes in the NPPF is an update to the ‘standard method’ for calculating housing targets.
Currently, this has been based on household projections and then applying various uplifts or caps based on local circumstances. The revised method would instead mean that housing targets are based on a proportion of the existing housing stock (0.8%) with an uplift based on workplace-based affordability.
What does this mean for each local authority area?
These updates have the effect of increasing the housing targets in most local authority areas. However, there are significant regional variations in the effect of the new methodology. Areas in the north of England will generally see the biggest increase in their housing targets, whereas the southeast will see smaller increases or even a reduction in their targets in some authority areas.
The government have produced a spreadsheet showing the changes in every district in England, available Here.
For London as a whole, the result is the reduction in the housing target from 98,822 with the existing method, to 80,693 with the new method. The full set of regional totals are shown below:
Region | Current Method | Proposed Method |
|---|---|---|
East Midlands | 20,792 | 27,382 |
East of England | 35,101 | 44,858 |
London | 98,822 | 80,693 |
North East | 6,123 | 12,202 |
North West | 21,497 | 37,817 |
South East | 51,251 | 69,060 |
South West | 28,203 | 40,343 |
West Midlands | 24,734 | 31,754 |
Yorkshire and The Humber | 18,699 | 27,433 |
England | 305,223 | 371,541 |
What does this mean for London?
For the London Boroughs, the revised targets are shown in the table below, with some boroughs seeing a substantial decrease.
London Authority Area | Current Method | Proposed Method |
|---|---|---|
Barking and Dagenham | 2,979 | 1,295 |
Barnet | 5,160 | 3,683 |
Bexley | 1,295 | 1,801 |
Brent | 3,954 | 2,805 |
Bromley | 3,713 | 2,806 |
Camden | 2,842 | 2,715 |
City of London | 150 | 151 |
Croydon | 4,511 | 2,763 |
Ealing | 3,632 | 3,132 |
Enfield | 4,286 | 2,531 |
Greenwich | 4,077 | 2,396 |
Hackney | 2,514 | 2,382 |
Hammersmith and Fulham | 1,580 | 2,467 |
Haringey | 3,431 | 2,716 |
Harrow | 2,420 | 2,137 |
Havering | 2,385 | 1,922 |
Hillingdon | 3,541 | 2,260 |
Hounslow | 3,368 | 1,991 |
Islington | 1,465 | 2,231 |
Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea | 1,381 | 4,271 |
Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames | 2,001 | 1,464 |
Lambeth | 2,321 | 3,041 |
Lewisham | 4.025 | 2,470 |
Merton | 1,989 | 1,936 |
Newham | 4,188 | 2,178 |
Redbridge | 3,682 | 2,270 |
Royal Borough of Richmond upon Thames | 2,187 | 2,283 |
Southwark | 4,065 | 2,710 |
Sutton | 2,332 | 1,628 |
Tower Hamlets | 5,190 | 2,177 |
Waltham Forest | 3,711 | 2,409 |
Wandsworth | 2,559 | 3,880 |
City of Westminster | 1,862 | 3,392 |
London | 98,822 | 80,693 |
24 out of the 32 London boroughs will see lower targets, but despite the London total decreasing, the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea will see a substantial increase from 1,381 to 4,271, which has been met with resistance from the Tory-run authority.
Media reaction
There has been substantial discussion in the planning media about the (re-)introduction of these targets, but the critical question is whether these targets will actually be met.
The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) issued a warning in May 2024, that the UK lacks skills and capacity to deliver major infrastructure and that the skills shortages in technical and engineering disciplines are set to worsen (https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/201373/uk-lacks-skills-and-capacity-to-deliver-major-infrastructure-pac-warns/).
According to the Chief Executive of The Federation of Master Builders, the industry is experiencing a serious skills shortage (https://www.ukconstructionmedia.co.uk/case-study/skills-shortage-rising-cost-construction/). This has resulted from various factors, including Brexit and the Covid pandemic leading to foreign workers leaving the country and not returning. The construction workforce is also ageing, with a higher number of workers retiring than new workers entering the industry. The cost of materials is also particularly volatile at present, owing to global economic and political events including the war in Ukraine. This has compounded the issue of builders leaving the industry, as they are exposed to more financial risk during jobs or are forced to significantly increase their cost estimates, making the industry a less attractive career option.
The result of all this is that construction costs are increasing, and waiting lists are going up. This affects the construction industry as a whole, from major infrastructure projects to housing schemes, to small householder extensions.
It is easy to set a target, but the real challenge for the government will be to facilitate the fundamental parts to actually build the homes – skilled workers and raw materials.